ALSO SEE: Phillips P. O'Brien | Substack

Hello All,

I’ve been writing now for almost 9 months about what Donald Trump’s plan for Ukraine would be. During that time I’ve been labelled an extreme pessimist, was told I was suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome, been told that I did not understand that Trump would need to make sure Ukraine had a good deal for his own ego, etc, etc.

It turns out, I was wrong. I was too optimistic. I never thought Trump would be anything but bad news for Ukraine, but so far things are looking even darker than imagined. In July 2024, this was my best estimate of what Trump would do if he were elected again.

Conclusion:

So the Trump peace plan, going by what he has said or people around him have said after speaking to him, has 5 definite parts. They are:

1. Trump will move very quickly-maybe trying to enact parts of his plan before being inaugurated.

2. He will start with an immediate cessation of US aid for Ukraine.

3. He will pressure Ukraine to cede large amounts of territory to Russia. 4. He will either partially or even totally lift the sanctions on Russia.

5. He will negotiate respectfully with Putin and suspiciously with Zelensky.

What Trump has never said, which a number of the proposed Trump peace plans argue he will do is:

1. Promise more US aid for Ukraine if Russia rejects a peace deal.

2. Make Russia cede any occupied territory.

3. Allow Ukraine into NATO.

4. Give Ukraine another type of security guarantee by the USA.

5. Press for Ukraine to be let into the EU.

Note—I’m done using “peace” to describe the plan—its not a peace plan, its a plan to hobble Ukraine.

Looking above there were some elements that were definitely right. Trump has cut aid for Ukraine, is pressuring Ukraine to hand over land, wants to lift sanctions on Russia, is very respectful to Putin and hostile to Zelensky, has ruled out Ukraine in NATO and real security guarantees for Ukraine. However, now that we have almost 7 weeks of a Trump presidency under our belt, I think the vision of his plan (which seems worked out with Putin) needs a revision. Its much more to weaken, even destroy Ukraine. So without further adieu, this is my best estimate of the Trump/Putin plan for Ukraine.