ALSO SEE: Wisconsin and Florida elections provide early warning signs to Trump and Republicans

Conservatives were unable to topple the 4-3 liberal majority in the most expensive judicial contest in U.S. history.

A liberal candidate for Wisconsin’s Supreme Court glided to victory Tuesday, overcoming a flood of political cash from tech billionaire Elon Musk in a race seen as a referendum on him and President Donald Trump.

The Associated Press called the race a little over an hour after the polls closed.

Musk and groups affiliated with him invested more than $20 million in the race. The top Trump adviser and leader of Tesla and SpaceX handed out cash prizes to generate interest in the race. At a rally Sunday in Green Bay, Wisconsin, he cast the election as one that could chart the course of Western civilization because of what it could mean for Trump’s agenda.

But Musk’s spending and hyperbolic framing weren’t enough to win the most expensive court race in U.S. history. The contest cost more than $100 million, nearly doubling the past record and putting it in line with top Senate races.

Susan Crawford, a Dane County judge and former chief counsel to a Democratic governor, won the open seat, ensuring liberals will keep their 4-3 majority. She defeated Brad Schimel, a Waukesha County judge and former Republican attorney general who embraced Trump.

With 98 percent of votes counted, Crawford led Schimel 55 percent to 45 percent early Wednesday.

“As a little girl growing up in Chippewa Falls, I never imagined I’d be taking on the richest man in the world for justice in Wisconsin — and we won,” Crawford told supporters in a crowded hotel ballroom.

Schimel conceded at an event in Milwaukee’s suburbs before Crawford took the stage. “We will rise again,” he told his backers. “We’ll get up to fight another day, but this wasn’t our day.”

Democrats saw Crawford’s victory as a sign they can flip Congress in the midterm elections and make gains in the Senate. “Shot heard ’round the world,” Wisconsin Democratic strategist Joe Zepecki said as the results became clear.

The results destabilized Republicans, who viewed the backing from Trump and Musk as a chance to bounce back in lower-turnout races that have stymied them in recent years in the battleground state. The loss was a rebuke to Musk, whose outpouring of cash appeared to do little to close the electoral gaps conservatives have faced in recent Wisconsin court races.

Crawford’s victory came a week after a Democrat won a special election for a GOP-tilting Pennsylvania state Senate seat, boosting liberals’ hopes of ending Republicans’ narrow control of Congress next year. On Tuesday, Republicans in Florida won two special elections for House seats, according to Associated Press projections, but they significantly underperformed Trump’s showing in the districts in November.

Ken Martin, chair of the Democratic National Committee, in a statement said Wisconsin voters had rejected Trump and Musk. “And their message? Stay out of our elections and stay away from our courts,” he said in a statement.

Trump endorsed Schimel and held a brief virtual rally for him. Musk enmeshed himself in the race by dispatching his political operation in the state and handing out $1 million checks to two voters at Sunday’s rally — one of whom was the chairman of the state College Republicans.

The president’s approval ratings have sagged while his administration has carried out drastic cuts to many federal programs and moved toward imposing massive tariffs that some economists fear could lead to a recession. Tuesday’s results flashed warning signs his party faces political peril.

Two years ago, Wisconsin set a national spending record of $56 million for a state Supreme Court race. This year’s race has obliterated that record, costing more than $100 million so far, according to WisPolitics.com.

Crawford benefited from large donations to the state Democratic Party from liberal billionaires — $1.5 million from Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D), $1 million from financier George Soros and $250,000 from LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman.

Turnout for Wisconsin Supreme Court elections varies from year to year but is far below turnout in presidential elections, when two-thirds to three-quarters of adults in the state go to the polls. Court elections saw turnouts of 22 percent in 2018; 27 percent in 2019; 35 percent in 2020; and 40 percent in 2023. More voters showed up in 2020 because the state’s presidential primary was on the same ballot and in 2023 because control of the court was at stake.

As in other parts of the country, liberals have fared well in these lower-turnout elections in Wisconsin. They won the 2018, 2020 and 2023 elections by double digits. The liberal candidate lost the 2019 race by a slim margin.

Conservatives tried to drive up turnout by identifying Trump supporters who don’t vote in court elections. Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 and 2024 by getting infrequent voters to the polls, and Schimel’s campaign banked on a similar strategy with the help of Musk. But getting Trump supporters to come to the polls when he is not on the ballot proved elusive.

In one bright spot for Republicans, voters in Wisconsin on Tuesday approved amending the state constitution to require photo identification to vote, according to AP projections. A state law has required voters for years to present ID at the polls; supporters of the ballot measure said adding the requirement to the state constitution will protect the policy from court challenges.

Schimel, 60, worked as a prosecutor for 16 years in Waukesha County in Milwaukee’s suburbs before being elected as district attorney there in 2006. He was elected state attorney general in 2014. After he lost his reelection bid, outgoing Gov. Scott Walker (R) appointed him to serve as a Waukesha County judge.

He aligned himself with the president, campaigning in a MAGA-style hat and posing in front of an inflatable Trump. He welcomed Musk’s help and appeared with him on an audio live stream on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter that Musk owns. Schimel later praised Musk, telling a conservative talk radio host he was “a pied piper for the younger generation” who was “saving free speech on the internet by buying Twitter and taking the censorship off.”

Crawford, 60, served in top roles in the administration of former governor Jim Doyle (D) and later worked as a private attorney fighting union restrictions, abortion limits and the state’s voter ID law. She was elected in 2018 as a judge in Dane County, home to the state capital of Madison.

Musk has been as much of a figure in the race as the candidates. Ahead of the Green Bay event, Musk posted on X that he would give $1 million prizes “in appreciation for you taking the time to vote.” After legal scholars questioned the plan, Musk deleted the message and posted another one saying his event was open to Wisconsin registered voters who signed a petition opposing activist judges.

On Friday, Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul (D) sued over the plan, saying it violated an anti-bribery law that bars giving voters something of value in exchange for casting ballots. Musk’s team argued that the payments were for signing the petition and serving as spokespeople, not for voting.

When a judge did not immediately hold a hearing, Kaul asked an appeals court and the state Supreme Court to intervene. Both declined to get involved.

For weeks, Musk’s America PAC has offered registered voters in the state $100 for signing the petition. On Sunday, Musk said the PAC would pay people $20 for each picture they took with a voter holding a photo of Schimel and giving a thumbs up.

Musk spent much of Sunday’s rally talking about the work of his U.S. DOGE Service, the non-Cabinet agency focused on downsizing the federal government. Democrats have attacked Musk’s efforts as chaotic and dangerous and portrayed the Wisconsin race as a way to push back against Trump and Musk’s endeavors.

Musk said he took interest in the race because he feared liberals on the court will redraw the state’s congressional districts if they kept their majority. Republicans hold six of the state’s eight congressional districts.

“Whichever party controls the House, to a significant degree, controls the country, which then steers the course of Western civilization,” Musk said. “I feel like this is one of those things that you may not see that it’s going to affect the entire destiny of humanity, but I think it will.”

There is no pending litigation over the House seats, but a lawsuit is feasible. Shortly after liberals took control of the court in 2023, voters sued over state legislative districts, and the court invalidated them. That led to new maps that greatly cut into the large Republican majorities in the state legislature.

Eric Holder, who served as Obama’s first attorney general and now leads a Democratic group focused on redistricting, said in an interview last week that Wisconsin’s U.S. House map is “pretty obviously gerrymandered.” He supported Crawford and said he was worried the court would reverse its decision on state legislative maps if Schimel won.

At Sunday’s rally, Musk didn’t mention the lawsuit that his electric vehicle company, Tesla, filed against the state in January over its ban on car manufacturers owning dealerships. That case is now before a county judge but could make its way to the state Supreme Court.

Crawford will be sworn in Aug. 1. Between now and then, the court is expected to decide whether abortion remains legal in the state.

In Prairie du Sac, a rural area northwest of Madison, officials marveled at seeing so many voters during what is often a sleepy election. More than half the town’s registered voters had cast ballots by 4:30 p.m.

High school teacher Tyler Jaedike, 28, voted for the first time in a state Supreme Court race, he said as he stepped outside the town hall where polling booths were set up. Trump and Musk’s support for Schimel helped draw him to the polls — to vote for Crawford. He said he was troubled by Musk’s payments to voters.

“I feel like if it’s just going down to a matter of whoever is the highest bidder, then there is definitely going to become a conflict of interest there,” he said.

Theresa Hellenbrand, 56, said she doesn’t usually vote in court races but came out this time in part because of Trump’s endorsement of Schimel. She said she got constant reminders about the race from the deluge of campaign fliers in her mailbox.

She said she didn’t sign Musk’s petition but didn’t have a problem with him paying voters to sign it. “It’s his right to do whatever he wants to,” she said. “It’s freedom of speech.”

Kim Adler, 54, declined to say how she voted after casting her ballot but expressed concerns about Musk’s payments.

“Let’s just say,” she said, “my votes can’t be bought.”