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Putin’s cynical ploy to curry favour with the U.S. administration and keep them negotiating while Russian forces continue to seize or destroy as much of Ukraine as possible.

In the past 24 hours, the Russian president declared a unilateral Easter truce in Ukraine. I published some thoughts about this on social media and wanted to amplify them here.

This declaration by Putin is the unserious and cynical act of an individual who for the past three years and two months since the full-scale invasion has maintained his maximalist goals to destroy Ukrainian sovereignty and culture. He has overseen the systemic brutality and barbarism of his forces including murder and torture of civilians and soldiers, looting, kidnapping, castration and mistreatment of PoWs, attacks against civilian targets and the attempt to destroy Ukrainian culture.

And we are expected to believe that that same creature that has overseen all this also wants an Easter truce?

Why has Putin done this and what does it mean for the war?

The truce is a short one - about a day in duration, if Putin is to be believed (he shouldn’t). It is a truce that Putin has called unilaterally from the comfort of Moscow. As such, the truce is not binding on the Ukrainians in any way.

Putin has done this, not because he has a shred of empathy for the soldiers – of either side – fighting this war. He has done it because he still believes that he has the upper hand in the war and can dictate its tempo.

But war is an interactive endeavour and war just does not work like that. Both sides have agency. For anyone who doesn’t believe this, please read Clausewitz or study the history of any war, and get back to me!

There are many practical challenges to achieving a truce. The Ukrainians and Russians are engaged along a nearly 1000-kilometre front line. The Russians have recently stepped up the tempo of attacks on the ground. These operations and the momentum they generate can’t just be turned off like a spigot. The Russians and Ukrainians are also engaged in continuous, evolving long-range strike campaigns against each other. These too have a strategic momentum that can’t just be turned off overnight.

Another practical challenge is that it isn’t clear what the Russian truce applies to. Is it just ground combat, or does it apply to air and sea operations as well. Will reconnaissance and surveillance tasks still be conducted? This kind of confusion means that engagements between Ukraine and Russia during the truce are almost certain.

And it appears this is exactly how things are playing out. The Ukrainian president wrote in a social media post today that:

We are documenting the actual situation on all directions. The Kursk and Belgorod regions — Easter statements by Putin did not extend to this territory. Hostilities continue, and Russian strikes persist. Russian artillery can still be heard in certain directions of the front, regardless of the Russian leader's promise of silence. Russian drones are in use. In some areas, the situation has become quieter. Our actions are and will be symmetrical.

So, this is a truce in name only. But this is totally the design by the Russians. Putin will want to place Ukraine in the position where it is seen as the ‘truce breaker’ even though it was not party to the truce. There are more than enough people in the world willing to believe such things unfortunately.

Like many previous ceasefires, this is one that Putin has no intention of keeping. The Russian president has a long history of negotiating agreements and ceasefires which he has no intention of complying with. This recent news article published in the UK provides a pretty good round up of all of Putin’s dastardly, and no predictable, backflips on agreements with other nations.

Putin only takes actions that he believes will result in him gaining some form of advantage. This declaration of a unilateral Easter truce is no different. Ultimately, the ‘truce’ is about Putin giving the Trump administration what I described in my social media posts as “a little sugar”.

Putin does not want the war to end. He has too much invested in it personally, and he has re-shaped his country into a ‘war nation’. Putin also does not wish to step back from his maximalist objectives. But, at this point of the war, it is important to Putin that the Americans remain engaged, and that they do not step away from their role in negotiations.

The U.S. Secretary of States, followed thereafter by President Trump, hinted as much this week. After the talks in Paris which involved Ukraine, European nations and the American negotiating team, Rubio stated that:

The president has spent 87 days at the highest level of this government repeatedly taking efforts to bring this war to an end. We are now reaching a point where we need to decide and determine whether this is even possible or not, which is why we’re engaging both sides….I think the president’s probably at a point where he’s going to say, ‘Well, we’re done. We’re not going to continue with this endeavor for weeks and months on end.

Trump backed up Rubio during a press conference later in the week and stated that:

If for some reason one of the two parties makes it very difficult, we're just gonna say, 'you're foolish, you're fools, you're horrible people,' and we're just gonna take a pass.

At this point, Putin wants to keep the U.S. engaged in negotiations for as long as possible. There are several reasons for this. First, because the current American position favours Russia. Negotiators like Witkoff parrot Russian narratives and appear to be focussed on large-scale territorial concessions to Russia. At the same time, there is almost no prospect of American security guarantees for Ukraine. This makes it much easier for Putin to restart the conflict if there is a ceasefire in the near term.

A second reason why Putin doesn’t want the Trump administration to walk away from the Ukraine peace negotiations is that the Ukrainians and Europeans having to deal with Witkoff and others is wasting their time. It is absorbing the time and attention of key decision-makers to no effect and distracting them from more important strategic initiatives (like stepping up the pressure on Russia).

A third a final reason for continuing the U.S. role in negotiations is because they are are sowing discord and chaos among Ukraine’s supporters and allies. This allows Putin to pursue what a ‘systems destruction’ strategy which breaks down relationships and trusts between security partners that Putin both likes and is able to exploit.

Putin’s Easter truce is a message direct to Trump and members of his administration. The message from Putin is something like this:

Donald, my friend, I know you are frustrated. I feel your frustration with Ukraine as well. Look, I even declared a truce over Easter, which Ukraine has already broken. I am the good guy here - please stick with negotiations.

It is total garbage but some who wish to distance the U.S. from its previous policy of supporting Ukraine will buy Putin’s narrative because it suits their position and politics.

Ultimately this truce is unlikely to have any great bearing on the trajectory of the war, other than Putin seeking to re-engage the U.S. administration in negotiations in the short-term. Given the lack of clarity on details, its unilateral nature and Putin’s history of breaking agreements, it will not last a day (the truce apparently has already been broken).

Putin is a cunning but evil actor. He will continue to employ ruses like this to pursue his cruel and unnecessary war against Ukraine and the Ukrainian people because he feels that he can still win it. We in the West must convince him otherwise.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian soldiers continue to dedicate themselves to the defence of their nation all along the frontlines.